O crescimento da produtividade total dos fatores e a estratégia de promoção de exportações: uma revisão da evidência internacional

Abstract

In this paper we review, examine and comment the empirical literature that relies on cross-country statistical analyses to show that export orientation has a positive and significant impact on total factor productivity growth. We comment the work reviewed in four lines. First, we address the question of properly identifying the degree of export bias of an economy and the ways by which exports and growth are related. Second we consider the sensitivity of the results to sample and period selection. Third, we review the evidence with respect to the direction of causality between exports and output growth. Finally, we extend the analysis beyond the single-equation crosscountry regression model to see the relevance of specification problems. Our main conclusion is that, although adequate to search for stylized facts, the cross-country model is not the best way to examine the association between total factor productivity growth and trade orientation.