Efeitos macroeconômicos de uma desvalorização cambial: análise de simulações para o Brasil

Abstract

A simple framework is developed in this paper to study to conditions by which a devaluation improves the trade balance, considering income effects, the degree of openness of the economy and the initial level of trade balance. The scope of the paper is to analyze the impact of a devaluation on the level of economic activity, the public deficit the price level and the external sector through the estimation of a macroeconomic model using annual brazilian data The results of the model simulations are strongly dependent on the assumptions about the wage indexation regime and the correlation between the cost of working capital and the real interest rates.