O programa de estabilização mexicano: um balanço de três anos

Abstract

The instability experienced by Mexico in 1987 was a manifestation that financial and exchangerate policies were unsustainable. The fiscal problem was the central cause of the inflationary syndrome. The objective of the Mexican Pact has been to reduce inflation while avoiding grave social costs. To achieve this end, fiscal discipline has been used to bring interest rates and, hence, reducing the government's financial needs. Other complementary measures such as sectoriallynegotiated price controls have helped avoid recession. Overall the results of the stabilization program have been favorable in terms of inflation and per capita income. This environment has resulted in a recovery in the credibility of the program reflected in the recent accumulation of international reserves. Nevertheless, two problems deserve special attention. On the one hand, the benefits of price controls are only temporary and may be offset by inconsistencies caused by the level of discretion used to administer them. On the other, from 1988 to 1990 there was a real accumulation of public debt and both foreign and domestic debt remain high Finally, two risks to be considered are the inflationary pressure caused by recent capital inflows, and the exchange rate management which bears on the sustainability of these flows in the future.