Estabilização da inflação através de uma política monetária ativa: um exercício de simulação

Abstract

This article tries to evaluate, in a preliminary fashion, the effects which alternative paths for the money stock (M1), in Brazil, would have on the behavior of a variety of macroeconomic variables like the inflation rate, the level of economic activity, and the interest rate. This analysis is done in a context in which estimates (even imprecise) of the effects are basically inavailable. Taking as a starting point 'the estimation of a Vector Auto-Regression and using sample data up to November of 1988, we simulate short-run alternative trajectories for the stock of some financial assets, for the interest rate and the rate growth of industrial production. The trajectories conditioned to the stabilization of the monthly inflation rate at 28% are compared to the ones obtained when the stabilization of the inflation rate is obtained through what we identify as an active monetary policy.