O comportamento estocástico do produto no Brasil

Abstract

In this paper we present ,the discussion about temporary and permanent innovations in GNP, beginning with the Beveridge-Nelson theorem, It is shown that the presence of an unit root is equivalent to a random walk in GNP trend. Parametric and, nonparametric approaches to measure the permanence of an innovation are also presented. Our results to Bra 711 and Colombia indicate that innovations in both countries are more persistent than in a random walk. Hence, stabilization policies have long run effects.