Moratória interna, dívida pública e juros reais

Abstract

In this paper we build a model of public debt supply and demand, in order to stud the dynamics of public debt and real interest rate. The possibility of a moratorium on internal debt is considered and its effects are analysed. For the case of Brazil we found out that the government's seigniorage is a random variable independent of the inflation rate, for high levels of inflation. Based on estimates, we perform simulations for the Brazilian case. One of the findings is that '.without the possibility of internal moratorium the government would not have ant' problem to finance the debt. However, a small chance of ocurrence of this moratorium would cause an explosion of the debt/GNP ratio and of the real interest rate.