Decomposição dos efeitos de intensidade energética no setor industrial brasileiro

Abstract

In the Brazilian economy, the final energy consumption to national income ratio declined from 7,6 to 6,6 (10 3 toe / 109 Cz$) between. 1973 and 1984. Inn the same period, nonetheless, electricity consumption in the industrial sector increased in 200% whereas fuel oil consumption dropped by 20%. Those alterations in the Brazilian energy consumption pattern must be analysed considering the radical changes occurred in the Brazilian industrial structure in the last two decades as well as the supply side adjustments imposed by the oil shocks. Therefore, this study intends to decompose the Brazilian industrial energy consumption into three components: a) activity effect; b) structural effect: and c) content effect. The activity effect reflects the relative changes due to the activity level of the sector and the content effect represents the changes in the energy intensity after the structural effect, resulting from changes in the mix of industrial output, being discounted. The results pertain to the period 1971185 and are estimated separately for eletricity, fuel oil and other fuels. In so doing allow to relate them to the main aspects of the Brazilian economic growth and energy policy during the period. From this analysis some suggestions for energy planning are put forward taking into account the financial and environmental restrictions upon the- energy supply in Brazil.