Dívidas e déficits: projeções para o médio prazo

Abstract

In the early eighties, debt crisis and the growing public deficits led to significant reductions ín investment and saving rates of the Brazilian economy. To evaluate present trade-offs between growth, external debt and government financial disequilibrium two simulations are Snide with an econometric model. The first shoats drat paying the external debt implies slow growth and a persistent public finance disequilibrium. The other shows that growth sustained by government expenditures implies unsustainable public finance disequilibrium. Public sector financial constraints, however, are intrinsically related to external constraints and as a solution exchange rate adjustments are recomended