Um modelo de consistência multissetorial para a economia brasileira

Abstract

The paper presents a consistence model that provides a framework for an analysis of the macroeconomic and sectoral consequences of different growth paths for the Brazilian economy in the long run, in the tradition of what has been called "requirement analysis". Sixteen different scenarios - envolving distinct hypothesis about the average GDP growth rate, exports expansion, import coefficients and the evolution of the income distribution - are considered, The model determines the sectoral growth pattern, the required investment Program (aggregate and sectoral), the savings requirement, as well as the aggregate demand composition. The results allow an evaluation of the plausibility of different growth paths.