Retomada do crescimento e esforço de poupança: limitações e possibilidades

Abstract

The Brazilian economy will not be able to sustain again the high long run growth rate maintained in the past 'without the adoption of a consistent police, designed to enhance the domestic saving effort. This paper analyses important trade-offs that should be considered in the design of such policy, using simulations based on two simple consistency models. Those simulations outline what would be the required increase in the private sector's saving effort in different scenarios, that involve distinct set of hypotheses on the evolution of the income distribution and of variables that determine the public sector's saving capacity. The results stress the lack of realism of policies that do not restore the importance of public sector's savings.