Resultados fiscais da reforma de 2003 no sistema de previdência social brasileiro

Abstract

This paper analyses the reform of the Brazilian social security system, implemented in 2003. We estimate the fiscal impacts of the government’s original proposal, of its version approved in the House of Representatives and of its final version, approved in the Senate. We also calculate the effective contribution rate, as well as the one which would be required to equilibrate the cash flow of the system, in the situation preceding the reform and also in its three phases. The results indicate that there was significant progress in reducing the social security deficit and in making it more equitable, in spite of the fact that the impacts of the reform which was actually approved are significantly smaller than those that were expected from its original version.